The latest Quaest poll, released on March 6, was the third in a week that showed a drop in the popularity of President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The survey shows that the PT president is still approved by the majority of Brazilians, 51%, but that there is growth in rejection: 46% of those interviewed said they disapproved of the government.
This is the second time that Quaest’s figures show growing discontent. From December to February, the percentage of disapproval went from 43% to 46%, while approval fell from 54% to 51%.
For the experts interviewed by iG, these results are linked to a series of factors, including political, social and behavioral issues of the Brazilian population, which can serve as a warning sign for the government, since Two other surveys (Ipec and Atlas) also showed a drop in the president’s popularity.
Economy
Economic stability usually appears as an important criterion for measuring government performance and, so far, the Lula government has shown regularity in this regard. This, however, has not held back the PT’s popularity.
“There is no huge criticism of what the government is doing. There has been growth in GDP [Gross Domestic Product] and there is relative responsibility with public accounts, with Haddad managing to keep tempers down,” analyzes Leandro Consentino, who classifies this as a “great success of the government.”
The Ínsper professor and PhD in Political Science from the University of São Paulo (USP) says that, during the elections, there was concern in the market about what Lula’s economic policy would be like, and the positive surprise was to see the current team leading the area “accepting the rules of the market.”
For the expert, the positive balance in the area is related to a favorable conjuncture, driven especially by the 2023 super harvest – which, according to the political scientist, is unlikely to be repeated this year.
Consentino explains that the outlook is heading for a year of “deteriorating economic expectations”, since, internally, there may be difficulties in regulating the tax reform, approved at the end of the year. In foreign policy, there is the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, as well as the unknown about the US presidential elections.
Accent to the electorate
During the 2022 election campaign, the big bet of the current president’s team was to build a broad front, especially after the second round. According to Consentino, the Planalto is finding it difficult to please all groups of the electorate.
“When polarization became more intense, the centrist party saw in the current government the chance for a broad front. Now, with a very left-wing rhetoric, this part of the electorate has been frustrated.” The professor also notes problems with how the left sees the current president, since they expected a more combative stance at the start of his term with regard to environmental and indigenous issues.”The left is not happy with this gradualism, just as the center is not happy with the combative discourse, which makes the government unhappy with the two sides that supported it during the elections. The result is this crisis of popularity,” he explains.
Social programs
The Quaest survey also showed voter preferences in each of Brazil’s five regions. The northeast and south appear at opposite ends of the spectrum. While Lula is liked by 68% of northeasterners and disliked by only 31%, at the other end of the country approval stands at 40%, while 57% disapprove of the government.
For Rosemary Segurado, a researcher at PUC-SP, throughout this first year, the Chief Executive made several nods to the “popular classes” by increasing existing social income transfer programs, as was the case with the changes to the Bolsa Família and the creation of Pé de Meia – a campaign promise of current Budget Minister Simone Tebet.
The PhD in Social Sciences explains that these two electorates are not only separated by the kilometers between one region of the country and the other, but by “a question of class”, since economically they are far apart.
“Historically, these differences have always appeared in President Lula’s terms in office,” recalls Segurado, who sees this discrepancy as a result of the economic difference between the regions and analyzes the south and southeast as places marked by meritocratic thinking.
“Middle class and upper middle class sectors believe in the discourse of meritocracy. There is no meritocracy without opportunities. This is a fallacy,” argues the professor, who adds, “Lula is a conciliator. He always talks about governing for everyone, but privileging those who need it most.”