If the intention was to maintain the Brazilian tradition, which recommends that co-workers draw their “hidden friend” and exchange gifts at the end of the year, the deputies and senators who work in the National Congress should already be preparing the party. For them, as far as the exercise of the function for which they were elected is concerned, the year has come to an end. That’s right! Although the Gregorian calendar indicates that, as of today, there are still 205 days to go until New Year’s Eve, the parliamentary year 2024, in practice, is already over!
It is likely that between now and December, one or another project that is too rumored to be left for later will still be put to a vote. Or, at some point in the second half of the year, Their Excellencies will make some “concerted effort” and abandon for two or three days the tasks related to their personal interests to solve at the drop of a hat some of the issues they are obliged to solve.
But, with regard to the structuring agenda, the one that could correct historical problems, generate income and quality jobs, and that most candidates always mention when they approach the voter in search of votes, we can forget. Every generalization is subject to injustices and it may be that among the 513 deputies and 81 senators there are those who want to show work. The issue, however, is not being dealt with here from an individual point of view, but from a structural one. In what requires the mobilization of the Legislature as one of the three powers of the Republic, nothing important will happen!
Unless this column is completely mistaken — and if it is, it will not shy away from asking forgiveness for the mistake — the week that begins today will be the last working week of the year and will be dedicated to the final approval by the Chamber of Deputies of the so-called Mover program. Trade and Services (MDIC), which offers benefits to vehicle manufacturers for the development of projects to decarbonize the national fleet.
So far, so good. The issue is that the bill has hidden in its core the clause that institutes the collection of a 20% tax rate on internet purchases of foreign products up to the value of US$ 50. It is not a question of delving into the causes and consequences of the arm-wrestling that has been established between the President of the Republic, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and the President of the Chamber, Arthur Lira, around this taxation. This has already been dealt with by many people over the past week.
SPECIFIC DEBATE — In short, Lula, at first, was in favor of the charge. But he came to oppose it for fear that the measure would further damage his popularity with the middle class. Lira, at first, was against it. He said that society pays more taxes than it should. It also changed its mind and began to consider the exemption to be detrimental to domestic industry and commerce – which have been subjected to unequal conditions of competition with low-priced imported products.
This is too important a discussion to be treated as a problem that everyone wants to sweep under the rug. The issue concerns the country’s fiscal logic and deserved a specific and in-depth debate – and not to be addressed, as it was, on the basis of what was said. Be that as it may, the treatment given to this issue reveals the secondary importance that the Legislature has been giving to its original attributions. By smuggling the issue into a bill that deals with a completely different topic, the House and Senate end up abdicating the power to set the agenda for debates based on the interests of society.
This issue will soon be forgotten and the National Congress, despite the importance of the role reserved for it in the democratic regime, will spend the entire second semester focused on the parochial interests of its members. There is no shortage of things for parliamentarians from now until the end of the year to do outside Brasilia. The month of June, as is well known, is traditionally used by the deputies of the states of the Northeast Region to “keep in touch with the bases” in the festivities of St. John and the other saints of the time.
This means that, of the 513 deputies in the Chamber, 151 – which is the total number of representatives from the nine states of the region – will have their heads more focused on the June festivities than on their parliamentary duties. The same goes for 27 of the 81 senators.
With such a large crowd enjoying the bonfires and enjoying forró in the festivals dedicated to St. Anthony, St. John and St. Peter (which, by the way, are great!), it will be practically impossible to carry forward any important discussion or decide on any more delicate topic from now on. As if that were not enough, in just over a month, on July 20, the well-deserved mid-year parliamentary recess will begin. After all, no one is made of iron!
The official agenda, strictly speaking, foresees only two weeks of work stoppage. This year, however, the current recess will have to be amended with the one at the end of the year. After all, 2024 is a year of municipal elections. And as much as he was elected to take care of the most important national issues, each Brazilian parliamentarian has a municipality to call his own. This became even more evident after the spree of the execution of the parliamentary amendments caused their interests to turn even more from their bases.
TAX AMENDMENTS — The timetable is tight. The period between August 5 and 16 will be dedicated to party conventions, which will define the candidates for mayors and councilors of the 5568 Brazilian municipalities. Soon after, the election campaign itself will begin – which, in practice, has already begun a long time ago – in part by the action of the parliamentarians themselves.
It is explained: with about R$ 30 million per year (or R$ 120 million over the course of the mandate) to spend only on the “tax amendments” aimed at “investments” in their bases (and without considering the secret budgets and the ways they always give to increase their access to public money), the deputies and senators have become very powerful electoral cables. The candidates supported by them have a much greater chance of visibility than those who do not have such abundant resources to invest in works that attract the attention of the voter.
Returning to the calendar, the first round of municipal elections is scheduled for October 6. In municipalities with more than 200,000 voters — a total of 96 out of more than 5,000 in the country — there may be a runoff on the 27th, three weeks later. Therefore, when the electoral invoice is settled, there will still be the entire month of November and at least half of December for the class to show service later this year.
There’s just one problem: there’s a fierce dispute over the name that will replace Arthur Lira at the helm of the Chamber. The decision will only be made in February, but the subject has already been mobilizing the attention of the house since the beginning of this year. There will also be succession in the Senate, where it is already practically certain that Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) will replace the inexpressive Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) in the presidency.
Be that as it may, it is most likely that, until the name of the president of the Chamber is defined—whose most important work in recent years has consisted of a permanent clash with the Executive over the expansion of parliamentarians’ access to public money—no one seems willing to move a straw to solve any issue of interest to society. It may even be that some more dedicated parliamentarian tries to break through this blockade and show work. But it is unlikely to succeed. In other words: with regard to structuring themes, while 2024 is ending in June, 2025 will only begin in February.
There is also another important aspect to be taken into account: the Congress that will return after the municipal elections will not be exactly the same one that is interrupting its work now. Among the 513 deputies, about 80 are expected to be made official by party conventions and be candidates for this year’s elections. If 50 of them candidates manage to exchange the Legislative Power for the Municipal Executive – which is very likely – the Chamber may undergo a renewal of more than 10% of its staff.
ELECTORAL BALANCE – The issue of the anabolic effect of tax amendments on the electoral prestige of those who are in office and the candidates they support in the municipalities is a topic to be debated later. However, it should be noted at the outset that this money at the disposal of some politicians causes a huge imbalance in the electoral balance and, consequently, in the entire democratic system.
That’s right. One of the most disastrous consequences of this system, which gives parliamentarians the right to decide, based only on their own interests, where and how the resources of the amendments will be spent, without the need to consult or satisfy anyone, tips the balance in favor of some candidates. The chances of someone who has so many resources being able to influence the voter’s decision are much higher than those of someone who is not part of this group. It’s that simple.
It should be noted that, here, we are not dealing with the risks of misuse of this money, nor are we talking about spending on socially irrelevant projects (as is the case of the road that the current Minister of Communications Juscelino Filho built with money from parliamentary amendments on his family’s land in Maranhão). What is important to point out, at least for now, is the advantage that access to this money gives to parliamentarians who, in a few days, will have their heads turned only to the elections.
In a scenario like this, it is necessary for the voter to be increasingly attentive to the details surrounding the exercise of the mandates of the parliamentarian he helped to elect. All the time, some of them show signs that maybe they shouldn’t deserve a second chance. Since the confirmation of the election of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for his third term as President of the Republic, for example, this column has systematically criticized the posture of politicians who addressed the voters with a discourse contrary to that of the PT, but allowed themselves to be seduced by the first offer they received to occupy a position in the government. The criticism, as has been said on other occasions, is not directed at the president who made the invitation – and who has every right to build bridges that ensure governability – but at the one who said one thing in the campaign and took another stance after being elected.
The point is that, at the current moment in Brazilian politics, not even this artificial majority, built on the basis of the ceding of space in the public machine to groups that were initially in opposition, has been enough to give the government enough majority to give it peace of mind in voting on issues of its interest. According to surveys carried out by those who closely follow the parliamentary work, the month of May, which came to an end at the beginning of last week, marked the period of least support for the government in the Chamber of Deputies since the beginning of President Lula’s current term.
The fact is that, throughout this semester, the tension between the government and the parliament has been permanent and it is very unlikely that the president’s team of political operators will reach the end of the year with the same configuration that it started. The pressure for the departure of the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, for example, is enormous—and perhaps Lula will have to face the circumstance of handing over the head of his old ally so as not to have to suffer even more crushing defeats in the Chamber.
In the Senate, the situation is not much different and the departure of the subservient Rodrigo Pacheco from the presidency, in February, should make it difficult to approve projects of interest to the Planalto in the House. What’s more, the fact that the government has as its leader in Congress the strident senator Randolfe Rodrigues (AP) – who doesn’t even have a party – indicates that the Planalto has a serious problem in the representativeness of its interlocutors with the parliament.
Reasons such as these suggest that it may even be good for Lula’s plans that parliamentarians, at this moment, concentrate their interests on the municipal elections and reduce, even if momentarily, the pressure on the government in the second half of the year. That will give the president time to get his house in order and, when 2025 rolls around, start thinking about steps that won’t get in the way of his plans for 2026.
